Friday, July 6, 2012

Unemployment has topped 8% for 41 straight months

The employment-to-population ratio for those aged 25-54 dipped to 75.6% in June 2012, down sharply from 80% in January 2008. Many economists left and right view the core employment ratio as one of the cleanest views of the labor market, because it includes those who have stopped looking for work while excluding the bulge in retirees and young adults in school. The average length of unemployment rose to 39.9 weeks in June 2012, close to recent peak. It was 17.4 weeks at the January 2008 peak and 23.9 weeks in June 2009, when the recession officially ended. Long-term joblessness is particularly bad because skills erode or become obsolete, leading to permanent losses in income. This is already the longest jobs recession since the Great Depression at 53 months. Payrolls aren't on track to reach the old highs until June 2015, assuming the sluggish economic expansion lasts that long.

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