Wednesday, June 9, 2010

The front runner in Belgium's elections is running on perhaps the ultimate in divisive proposals: the breakup of the nation

Despite its status as the home of the European Union, Belgium itself has long struggled with divisions between its 6 million Dutch-speakers and 4.5 million Francophones but until recently talk of a breakup has been limited to extremists. Now, Bart De Wever of the centrist New Flemish Alliance is pressing for exactly that. What once seemed a preposterous fantasy of the political fringes has, in the mouth of a man seen as a possible prime minister, suddenly takes on an air of plausibility. The consequences of a precedent-setting split would be felt as far away as Spain: wealthy Catalonia has engaged in a long-standing campaign for independence and Basque separatists still set off bombs in their quest for autonomy. Italy's Northern League, which is in coalition with Silvio Berlusconi's center-right party, has also advocated a split between the rich north and the impoverished south. Then there's the euro — what would happen to the European common currency if one of its founding members fell apart? Would prosperous Flanders be allowed to join but poorer Wallonia be kept out? Or would both inherit Belgium's right to the currency — even though Belgium itself now no longer meets criteria on issues like the deficit? De Wever's curtains-for-Belgium campaign finds resonance far beyond the medieval gables and cathedrals of this centuries-old city of 600,000 in the Flemish heartland. Across the nation, both Dutch-speakers and Francophones have tired of the petty linguistic squabbles that have mired government after government in political stalemate. Carving up Belgium has been a cherished dream for the far-right in Flanders, Belgium's economically dominant north, and a nightmare scenario for poorer French-speaking Wallonia. Flanders has half the unemployment of and a 25% higher per capita income than Wallonia, and Dutch-speakers have long complained that they are subsidizing the lives of their Francophone neighbors. De Wever's party is forecast to win 26% of the vote — way up from 3.2% in 2007.

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