Obama is on track to perform at a historically low level among white voters, and he needs to compensate by attracting overwhelming support from minorities, along with a big turnout by them

The story is the same no matter which poll is your personal favorite. Pew, one of the most respected in the business, showed Obama winning only 37% of likely white voters. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed Obama stuck at 36%. Gallup’s weekly tracking found his approval rating among whites at 38%. Even Public Policy Polling, a Democratic robo-polling firm skewered by the Right, finds Obama’s job approval at 39% in its tracking. If Obama can’t hit 40%, he badly needs to maximize the minority and youth turnout that comprise his base. There’s plenty of evidence that, given Obama’s struggles with white working-class voters, he could face some unexpected headwinds in states that have been in the Democratic column during presidential years since at least 1988.