Monday, April 29, 2013
Black voters "outperformed" their potential share of the electorate in 2012, while every other minority group and whites "underperformed"
If the racial and ethnic composition of the electorate were the same it was before Barack Obama entered the national stage, Mitt Romney would be president. Blacks make up about 12% of the total pool of eligible voters, yet they comprised 13% of the overall electorate in 2012. This is a very high turnout, fueled, no doubt, by Barack Obama being on the ballot. The share of the electorate made up of white, Asian or Hispanic voters were all well below their share of the population. For example, 2-5 million fewer whiles voted compared to 2008, even though their number of eligible voters had increased. In 2010, the electorate reverted to its historical norm and Republican swept the elections. Barack Obama was in the White House, but he wasn't on the ballot. If this pattern continues, 2014 could be another big year for Republicans. This is further evidence that the 2012 outcome was unique to Barack Obama. He was obviously helped by the historic black turnout, but he was equally helped by Mitt Romney's uninspiring campaign. Millions of potential Romney voters simply stayed home. If Romney had done more to motivate whites to come out to vote for him, he would likely be president now.