The number of children growing up as Muslims in Britain has almost doubled in a decade in what experts have described as an “unprecedented” shift in Britain’s social make-up

One in 12 schoolchildren in England and Wales are now officially classed as Muslim after a decade which saw the number of followers of Islam surge by just over 1.1 million, according to the most detailed study of its kind ever published. The report, presented to Parliament, concludes that Muslims could play a decisive role in the coming general election, expected to be the closest in recent times, making up a significant share of voters in some of the most marginal seats in the country. But the study of official census data by the Muslim Council of Britain also concludes that the Muslim population will continue expanding for “many decades” to come – something that experts said could transform everything from social attitudes to foreign policy. Although immigration has driven growth in the past, it is the dramatically younger age profile of the Muslim population which could have the biggest impact in the future. At a time when the wider population is ageing rapidly, half of British Muslims are under the age of 25 and a third are under 15. Overall 2.7 million people living in England and Wales on census day in 2011 – and another 81,000 across Scotland and Northern Ireland – described themselves as Muslim. That is up from just under 1.6 million in 2001 – a 75% jump. Among children under the age of five the rate of increase was more than 80%. Significantly, Muslims make up more than a fifth of the population in 26 parliamentary constituencies and around 50% in some areas. There are also 70 council wards with a Muslim population of 40% or more. Muslims are around twice as likely to be unemployed or homeless and almost a third of members of some communities have little or no English – a trait most marked among older people and new arrivals. Prof David Voas, director of the Institute for Social and Economic Research based at Essex University, said: “In terms of ethnic-religious minority groups expanding I think this is probably unprecedented. Even if immigration stopped tomorrow it is clear that in due course by the middle of this century or a bit later, 10% of the population of Britain will be of Muslim heritage.” He said that is likely to change political decisions and social attitudes on both a local and national level. “You could see the effect with local authorities making accommodation with swimming baths where there are women-only swimming periods,” he said. “It would start off with being relatively small but you could just imagine a situation where a more socially conservative view that might be conducive to Muslims might tip the balance.” He added: “It is also possible that there would be an impact on foreign policy – that there would be greater scepticism of involvement in foreign wars where the adversary is predominantly Muslim.”