Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Should we really be worrying all that much about the Hispanic vote?
It is projected that in November 2012, Hispanics will comprise 17.2% of the total U.S. population, 15% of adults, 11.2% of adult citizens and 8.9% of actual voters. In 2012, non-Hispanic whites are expected to be 73.4% of the national vote and non-Hispanic blacks are expected to be 12.2%. To place the Hispanic share of the electorate into perspective, eight percentage points of the Hispanic vote nationally equals slightly less than one percentage point of the non-Hispanic white vote. The 8.9% Hispanic share of voters compares to veterans (12% of the electorate), those with family incomes above $100,000 (18%), seniors 65 and older (19%), married persons (60%) and those who live in owner-occupied housing (80%). In terms of voter turnout, it is projected that 52.7% (± 0.6) of eligible Hispanics will vote in the upcoming election, an increase from 49.9% in 2008 and a continuation of the past decade's long upward trend. The projected Hispanic voter participation rate of 52.7% compares to 66.1% for non-Hispanic whites and 65.2% for non-Hispanic blacks in 2008.