Saturday, August 4, 2012

If the labor force participation rate was the same as when Obama took office in January 2009, the unemployment rate would be 11.0%

Even if you take into account that the LFP should be declining as America ages, the unemployment rate would be 10.6%. If the labor force participation rate hadn’t declined since just June 2012, unemployment rate would have risen to 8.4%. The broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes “all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons,” ticked up to 15.0%. Then there is the plight of the Millenials — 18-29 year olds who have come of age in the last decade. This group supported Obama by a 2-1 margin in 2008. But a Labor Market Depression has hit the young harder than any other group. The youth unemployment rate for 18-29 year olds specifically for July 2012 is 12.7% (not seasonally adjusted). In addition, the youth unemployment rate for 18-29 year old African-Americans for July 2012 is 22.3% (NSA); the youth unemployment rate for 18-29 year old Hispanics for July 2012 is 14.0% (NSA); and the youth unemployment rate for 18–29 year old women for July 2012 is 12.6% (NSA). The declining labor participation rate has created an additional 1.715 million young adults that are not counted as “unemployed” by the U.S. Department of Labor (BLS) because they are not in the labor force, meaning that those young people have given up looking for work due to the lack of jobs. If the labor force participation rate were factored into the 18-29 youth unemployment calculation, the actual 18-29 unemployment rate would rise to 16.7% (NSA). the latest unemployment number is another indicator of the far greater, more fundamentally devastating, and still under-reported story impacting young Americans. For nearly three and half years, young Americans have experienced historically high unemployment levels – levels that are among the highest since the end of World War II. The rate of unemployment only tells half the story. How many of the millenials are underemployed or working part time? Only 41% of 18-29 year olds are working full time. Fully 77% of young people have put off some sort of major, life changing decision like buying a home or getting married and starting a family.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I expect the labor force participation to decline MUCH further in the future.