Sunday, October 7, 2012

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes - down five votes from their initial prediction - and short of the 270 needed to win. While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, this model is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. The professors included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico - now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada. In Colorado, which Obama won in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 53.3% of the vote to Obama’s 46.7%, with only the two major parties considered.

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