Sunday, September 18, 2011
Overconfidence and success
Researchers believe that they have discovered why humans have a false sense of optimism. Computer led simulations have shown that over confidence in all aspects of life can often improve your chances of winning. Overconfidence frequently brings rewards, as long as the spoils of conflict are sufficiently large compared with the costs of competing for them. In contrast, people with unbiased, accurate perceptions usually fare worse, the study says. The implications are that, over a long period of time, the evolutionary principal of natural selection is likely to have favored a bias toward overconfidence so someone who is abundantly confident would have more descendants than someone rife with insecurities, the researchers say.