A new IBD/TIPP poll suggests that most people, and even most Democrats, don't rate Obama's chances of victory in 2012 high at all

The national poll asked people how likely they think it is that Obama will win the November 2012 election. Only 23% said that they think it's very likely, with the rest offering more lukewarm assessments of his chances. Even among Democrats, only a little more than a third (39%) believe that he's very likely to get reelected, with 46% saying that he's somewhat likely to do so, and 14% saying that his winning isn't likely to happen. The survey also found that just 47% of all those asked think Obama deserves reelection, with 48% saying he doesn't. Independents were less supportive, with just 43% saying that he deserves a second term. The IBD/TIPP poll also found that in almost every category, Obama gets low marks on his performance. When asked to grade his handling of the economy, for example, just 27% gave him an A or B; on managing the budget, that figure was 26%. Only on the Afghan war does he do relatively well, with 41% giving him high marks. Democrats also give Obama relatively low grades; just 49%, for example, gave him an A or B on his handling of the budget, and a slim majority approve of his handling of the economy. Meanwhile, just 30% of all those surveyed say that Obama is providing strong leadership for the country.